Decision Making Under Uncertainty II
Most of us studied probability and statistics in high school, college, or as part of our MBA program. We understand the fundamental concepts and may even apply them to our judgments and decisions regularly! What most of us aren’t aware of, however, are the numerous ways in which we might be de-railed when employing principles from Probability and Statistics to make decisions! The various blunders that are frequently made, as well as the numerous misunderstandings that we have. Sampling and statistics are used to assess probability and dangers.
The human brain isn’t equipped to understand probability or statistics intuitively. According to brain researchers, mathematical truths make little intuitive sense to our minds, particularly when dealing with random and non-random outcomes, or when dealing with vast amounts of data. As a result, we unconsciously and instinctively make several mistakes while analyzing risks and opportunities.
This Decision Making Under Uncertainty course will assist you in learning about, and attempting to avoid and reduce, such errors and misunderstandings. It will be beneficial to everyone, but notably to leaders and managers, whose different judgments and decisions have the potential to affect a large number of people, companies, and countries!
Who should take this Decision Making Under Uncertainty course:
Leaders and managers who wish to avoid making mistakes in statistics and probability when making choices.
Management Students, as well as anyone else who wants to use Probability and Statistics more precisely and successfully, can benefit from this book.
Anyone who wishes to ensure that when utilizing Probability and Statistics, they don’t fall into the numerous misconceptions and misleading dangers for leaders and managers who want to avoid making mistakes in statistics and probability when making choices.
Management Students, as well as anyone else who wants to use Probability and Statistics more precisely and successfully, should read this book.
Anyone who wishes to ensure that when utilizing Probability and Statistics, they don’t fall into the various misconceptions and misleading dangers
Jon now to Decision Making Under Uncertainty course
What Will You Learn?
- Misconceptions and errors in probability and statistics that affect everyday judgments and decisions
- When using Probability and Statistics, the psychological biases and fallacies that cause us to make incorrect assumptions and conclusions
- How to avoid such mistakes and make better use of probability and statistics while making judgments.
Project Network and Analysis
Newsvendor Problem: Background, Model and Analysis00:00
Newsvendor Problem: Example and Proof00:00
Buffers to Cushion for Fluctuations00:00
Safety Stock for Inventories00:00
Safety Stock: Example and Derivation00:00
Exploration and Exploitation00:00
Introduction to sequential decision making00:00
Costs, Ratings, Options and Choices for both Restaurants00:00
Two Stage Stochastic Optimization00:00
Concluding Remarks and Simpson’s Paradox00:00
Markov Chains for Decisions00:00
DTMC Modeling and Analysis00:00
Markov Decision Process Set Up00:00
Analyzing the four policies00:00